Friday, February 5, 2010

Flashback Friday: Mecca Lecca Hi ...

Tomorrow is the opening of Team BHI's race season, and boy are we ill-prepared. I've barely run nine miles in the last two weeks. I haven't cracked a 10-minute mile pace since Jan. 23. Hell, I haven't even registered yet, costing me another $5 for race-day sign-up. And now, I have to guess my time to win tomorrow's Frostbite Prediction Run.

The closest I have come to predicting my finish time is 49 seconds. Historically, I have always underestimated myself. Except for that time I got screwed when the race directors surreptitiously changed the distance from four miles to a 5-K. No, I'm not still bitter about that. Why do you ask?

The course is a double loop through a park, covering mostly asphalt walkways and roads, but also includes a brief stretch through a field. In the past, the ground has been iced over, and I doubt this year will be any different.

Last year, I used Nitmos's totally flawed race prediction formula and lost. This year, I will try a new tactic. My prediction is based off the averages of my recent fastest pace (9:15 on a four-miler), my last two paces for this race (9:04 and 8:39) and my PR pace (7:14).

Race Forecast
: 23 degrees, 70 percent chance of snow, 14 mph wind from the East
Race Prediction: 26:34

Back Talk
Wherein this post is already too long so let's get on with it already.

Jess thinks Dobson the Straggler went to the vet to socialize: "Hope he's had all his vaccinations if you're taking him to the dog park. Especially his rabies vaccine."

Answer: We didn't just to him to the vet to ask about running. Dobson got his last round of puppy shots and his rabies vaccine. He got his rabbis vaccine too.

Happy Hour is nearly upon us, teammates. Have a finely brewed weekend. Run well and drink well. Cheers!


Nitmos said...

Clearly you didn't apply my formula correctly for it has never failed. User error. Regardless, have a good weekend.

GeorgiaSnail said...

I'm calling it @ 26:19...

Psyche said...

I say 26:45 but only 'cause Dobson has held you back in your training.

Morgan said...

I say 25:42 so don't let me down! Run faster!

Ms. V. said...

Good luck Viper! Predict away, then take away 30 seconds...I'm serious.

Roisin said...

I'm not making any predictions, but I do hope you run well (and fast)! I'll have a bottle of Bushmills to celebrate your run.