The first year, the temperature for the race was in the low, single digits. (Or was it negative degrees?) The second year, the racecourse was an ice rink. This year, the forecast calls for a misnomer, as weather predictions call for a rather unfrostbitten 40 degrees for the annual Frostbite Prediction Run. (I've even heard rumors of 50 degrees.)
In the past, I have never pre-registered for this event, so maybe I didn't notice it before, but all pre-registered racers get a sweatshirt this year. The shirt's message? "I survived the Frostbite." I suppose that will be true if I don't drop dead -- of heat exhaustion.
Of course, leading up to the race, the temps are supposed to be as high as 25 degrees today, 17 tomorrow, 20 on Thursday and 34 on Friday. I should be well-acclimated to frostbite come race day.
The race is to be held at the same location (and distance) as last year. I'm shooting for a steady marathon pace of 9:08 (28:23 finish), but we all know I'll never stick to that. Therefore, I'm applying Nitmos's (that quitter) race prediction formula, multiplying my "what I think I can do" finish of 28:23 by 0.975.
Race prediction = 28:23 x 0.975 = 27:40.42
A 27:40 finish is 8:54 per mile, which is almost exactly the pace I ran last time I tried to run my goal marathon pace. How convenient.