Tuesday, February 3, 2009

First Race of the Year

The first year, the temperature for the race was in the low, single digits. (Or was it negative degrees?) The second year, the racecourse was an ice rink. This year, the forecast calls for a misnomer, as weather predictions call for a rather unfrostbitten 40 degrees for the annual Frostbite Prediction Run. (I've even heard rumors of 50 degrees.)

In the past, I have never pre-registered for this event, so maybe I didn't notice it before, but all pre-registered racers get a sweatshirt this year. The shirt's message? "I survived the Frostbite." I suppose that will be true if I don't drop dead -- of heat exhaustion.

Of course, leading up to the race, the temps are supposed to be as high as 25 degrees today, 17 tomorrow, 20 on Thursday and 34 on Friday. I should be well-acclimated to frostbite come race day.

The race is to be held at the same location (and distance) as last year. I'm shooting for a steady marathon pace of 9:08 (28:23 finish), but we all know I'll never stick to that. Therefore, I'm applying Nitmos's (that quitter) race prediction formula, multiplying my "what I think I can do" finish of 28:23 by 0.975.

Race prediction = 28:23 x 0.975 = 27:40.42

A 27:40 finish is 8:54 per mile, which is almost exactly the pace I ran last time I tried to run my goal marathon pace. How convenient.

15 comments:

Jess said...

Good luck in your race!

Al's CL Reviews said...

Good luck! Drink well after!

Spike said...

A Frostbite race run at 40 degrees? They should rename the race, or make everyone along the race route pull their refrigerators to the curb and open their freezers. Either way, good luck!

Vanilla said...

Good luck on your ?K race, and thanks for not telling us the distance so that we have to use basic algebra to figure it out. I come here to make fun of you, not to be confused and feel stupid.

Carolina John said...

Good luck, bro. that's still pretty chilly for these parts.

tfh said...

Just wear shorts and a singlet and remember to drink lots of water-- take it slow-- remember your body isn't acclimated to these conditions...

Blyfinn said...

Sounds like great temps for a race. Good luck. I'm sure you can avoid the frostbite.

joyRuN said...

Lovely how that math works out.

Don't overheat now.

Glaven Q. Heisenberg said...

Race prediction = 28:23 x 0.975 = 27:40.42

Pfffttt! You can prove anything using this fuzzy math!

For instance:

Vanilla ÷ (Nitmos - a llama) = Marcy.

That's true. In theory. But what use is that book-larnin' knowledge in the real world?

Sarah said...

GQH is back! Are you baiting me with math? Because you know I have a hard time resisting numbers. Especially fuzzy ones (as long as there's no mention of George W. at the same time).

Good luck on the race. I am curious about the time prediction concept, as I have not attempted one of those myself. I look forward to seeing how it turns out.

Don't forget to get your beer on afterward like the good running drinker that you are. :)

Roisin said...

I kinda want that sweatshirt...

Ms. V. said...

Good luck! Mine's the next day in Davis. There better NOT be frost.

Vava said...

Good luck! And I'm with you on the Nitmos quitting thing...

MCM Mama said...

Enjoy racing in the "balmy" weather!

Jess said...

Good luck. Remember to drink lots of beer the day before. You don't want to dehydrate in those warm conditions.