Flashback Friday: Predictable

About a year ago, my compadre Martini and I got this dumbfuck adventurous idea to run a race in near sub-zero weather. It was the Frostbite 4-Mile Prediction Run, which I've mentioned more than a few times. Depending on whose memory you go by and which day of the week it is, the temperature was anywhere from 2 degrees to 4 below. At those temperatures, does it really matter?

Tomorrow is this year's Frostbite and the weather should be considerably better: around 30 degrees, cloudy and 20 percent chance of precipitation. Last year, I ran 36:08 (9:03 pace) after only one week of running, as I had taken the previous two months off with an injury and demotivation. This year I've been running throughout the winter and have a much stronger base. However, I've only cracked the 10-minute pace in my last two training runs. So the dilemma: What predicted time will put me in the winner's circle?

Looking back, my pace has only ever been over 9 minutes for this race last year and for the Akron Marathon (10:12 pace). Last year, I ran 8:54 pace for my better half marathon, 8:34 pace for 10-K and 7:50 pace for 5-K. And I predicted a time of 38:35 for the Frostbite.

Oh yeah, and it's also likely I'll be hungover.

So, dear readers, what will my finish time be? I'm a gut-feeling runner, so I won't decide until tomorrow morning at registration. But for fun, leave your predictions in the comments. Whoever is closest wins!

What do you win? You win a blog topic! Hurray! If your prediction is the closest to my actual time, you get to decide a topic for me to write about. And it can be any old thing you like--no matter how asinine! Just remember, you have have to suffer the results of your choice. Let the predictions begin!

Coming Next Week!

• Frostbitten race report
• A review of Strides:Running Through History with an Unlikely Athlete, by Benjamin Cheever
• You decide?

Evidence I work at the right place: We're shutting down a half-hour early for pizza and beer!

[Drunkard note: I've never used so many exclamation points in my life!]