As you know, I've been testing the George Parrott marathon prediction theory. However, I've also always loved playing with the McMillan Running Calculator. For the Buckeye Half Marathon, I plugged my Parrott predictions into the McMillan site to arrive at my goal finish time and pacing parameters.
With the Akron Marathon just a few weeks away, I'm trying to formulate a pacing strategy, using the two prediction systems as a basis. Problem is they're giving me mixed signals.
Last week's Parrott prediction, which includes my race and the brutal run home from work, gave me a marathon finish time of 4:50:53, my slowest forecast yet.
With my Buckeye time as a base, McMillan predicts a finish of 4:38:11, paradoxically my fastest forecasted race time.
And all along, I've set 4:30 as my A-plus goal.
This feels similar to my first marathon, when my goal was 4:00 and I finished with a 4:26, only add a half hour. Of course, I can't rely on the past week's runs as my sole criteria for guessing my race finish time. I still have two more big training weeks ahead, with an 18-miler this weekend and my only 20-miler next week.
I might as well add some more predictions to the mix. When do you think I'll finish the Akron Marathon?